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Markets await Wednesday’s update from the Fed as well as details about…
Markets await Wednesday’s update from the Fed as well as details about how China’s government will respond to the Evergrande crisis
US stocks declined near the end of trading on Tuesday, edging lower for the day. Investors are now evaluating the risks from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, and China’s strict regulations on the real-estate sector. Markets await Wednesday’s update from the Fed as well as details about how China’s government will respond to the Evergrande crisis.
The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones both dropped on Tuesday. The S&P 500 was down 0.1% on a daily basis, continuing its bearish traction for a fourth day. The index opened higher, but experienced high volatility throughout the day. The industrial, communication services, and utilities sectors are the worst performing among all groups, dropping 0.7%, 0.33% and 0.24%, respectively. The Nasdaq, on the contrary, posting a 0.1% gain for the day.
Investors are watching from the sidelines for the two-day Fed meeting that stared Tuesday as the potential timeline for bond tapering and any shifts in expectations for raising interest rates will both be pivotal for the global stock market.
In Asia, Evergrande tumbles further after S&P Global Ratings say default is likely. Despite concerns about broader contagion remaining, things are looking up as Wall Street believes that China has it under control. Investors expect that China will save its biggest real-estate firm, either directly or indirectly, from being like the Lehman saga. International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Chief Economist Gita Gopinath also sounded optimistic in her latest speech, citing that China has “the tools and the policy space to prevent this turning into a systemic crisis.”
Main Pairs Movement
China’s Evergrande declined further on Tuesday’s trading, but the broad equity and currency markets bounced back on fresh dollar strength, and investors are now turning their attention to Wednesday’s FOMC press conference and the Fed’s interest rate decisions. Despite spending returning to pre-pandemic level, the U.S. still posted fewer job gains, less than expected inflation in August, as well as some economic fatigue brought on by the resurgence of the Delta variant. Thus, analysts are predicting that the September FOMC meeting would not result in a tapering commitment. Rather, analysts are expecting the Fed to remain dovish as the FOMC keeps quantitative easing measures intact for the near term.
Most USD-based currencies declined for a second straight trading session as the Greenback gained fresh strength. Cable rebounded slightly at the beginning of today’s trading but would decline once the North American trading session began. USD/CAD slipped during the European session but recovered swiftly as the American trading session began. AUD/USD was also able to repair some of the losses from the previous trading day but would lose ground as the American trading session began.
GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)
Cable found support at around 1.3641 at the start of the trading day, and the pair continued to repair lost ground from yesterday’s trading. However, as the American trading session began and U.S. equity markets rallied, Cable once again traded lower as the dollar gained strength throughtout the American trading session.
From a technical perspective, Cable met resistance at the 1.3687 price level, and was unsuccesful at breaking through before the pair began trading lower. As of writing, Cable is trading at the lower bound of the bollinger bands, while RSI for the pair sits at 32.21, indicating some overselling in the market. Cable is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.3687, 1.381, 1.3851
Support: 1.3641, 1.3603
USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)
USD/CAD was unable to keep yesterday’s gains. Instead, the pair slipped as much as 0.8% for the most part of Tuesday’s trading sessions before finding support at around the 1.275 price level. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau successfully defended his historical third term, despite not winning a majority in the parliament and the popular vote. During his campaign, Prime Minister Trudeau has pledged to raise taxes on financial institutions and to impose stricter emission rules for the oil and gas sector.
From a technical position, USD/CAD continues to be rejected from the 1.2834 resistance level, but the pair has found higher levles of support at the 1.2752 price level. As of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the upper half of the bollinger bands and RSI for the pair indicates 60.11, suggesting mild overbuying in the market. USD/CAD is trading above the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.2834, 1.2912
Support: 1.2752, 1.2635, 1.2586
AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)
AUD/USD gained during the European session as the pair climbed to a session high of 0.7283 before the American trading session began. As the Greenback gained strength, AUD/USD entered negative territory and is trading lower towards our estimated support level of 0.7222. The RBA Minutes, released today, failed to boost demand for the Aussie dollar. The Minutes showed the RBA’s continued dovish stance and no reversal in the RBA’s bond purhcasing program in light of weaker job postings in August.
From a technical viewpoint, AUD/USD has met new resistance at the 0.728 price level. As of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7233, above our estimated support of 0.7222. The pair is trading at the lower bound of the bollinger bands, while RSI for the pair indicates 39.77, indicating mild underbuying in the market. AUD/USD is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 0.728, 0.7332, 0.7375
Support: 0.7222, 0.7117
At its meeting next week, the Fed will probably hint at the…
At its meeting next week, the Fed will probably hint at the timeline of bond tapering before making a formal announcement in November
US stocks declined on Friday, touching the lowest levels in four weeks. Investors are now evaluating the resilience of the global recovery amid concerns about the delta virus and risks from China. On top of that, Friday is the day of quarterly expiration of options and futures, which can create volatility. Oil slipped, while gold advanced.
The benchmarks, S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ both dropped on Friday. The S&P 500 was down 0.9% on a daily basis, while the index edged lower for a second day and erased its gains from earlier in the week. The material, utilities and technology sectors were the worst performing among all groups, dropping 2.06%, 1.59% and 1.52%, respectively. The NASDAQ, in the same way, finished in positive territory for a third day. The global stock market struggled to maintain optimism in the face of slower economic growth, high inflation, and likely pending changes in the Fed’s tapering plan.
From the angle of economic data, the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index was released on Friday, showing that US consumer sentiment rose slightly but remained close to a decade low. High prices also resulted in deteriorated buying conditions. At its meeting next week, the Fed will probably hint at the timeline of bond tapering before making a formal announcement in November.
In Asia, stock markets were mixed as the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group continues. Casino stocks extended their losses amid tightening regulations in Macau.
Main Pairs Movement
The US dollar advanced on Friday, touching its highest level since August 27. The Dollar Index started to gain bullish momentum in the beginning of the American session and pushed higher after the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was released. Consumer confidence in the US improved modestly in September with the Index rising to 71 from 70.3 in August. This reading came in slightly weaker than the market expectation of 72.2. The DXY index rose 0.4% on a daily basis. Market focus now shifts to next week’s FOMC meeting, as investors expect Fed to give more hints about the timeline of bond tapering.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD both declined on Friday amid stronger the US dollar across the board, losing 0.33% and 0.38% for the day respectively. The EUR/USD pair continued its slide, dropping to a fresh monthly low during American trading hours. The Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose by 1.6%, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the Core CPI for August (MoM) also edged higher by 0.3%. As for the Cable, Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision on September 23.
Gold advanced slightly on Friday. After climbing to a daily high during the European session. However, gold lost its traction and dropped below $1,750 amid renewed USD strength. The precious metal posted a 0.05% gain on a daily basis. WTI Crude Oil, on the contrary, dropped more than 0.9% on Friday.
GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)
GBP/USD is trading under the 1.3800 level, on the back foot after UK’s disappointing Retail Sales data, -0.9% in August. From a technical point of view, the intraday bias looks bearish as GBP/USD falls below the ascending trend line, indicating that the upside momentum has been overturned on the four- hour chart. The bearish move is expected to continue as the RSI has not reached the oversold territory, giving more rooms for the pair to extend further south. Bears might continue to head toward the next immediate support level at 1.3727.
Resistance: 1.3771, 1.3798, 1.3820
EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)
EUR/USD is trading below the 1.1800 level, remaining pressured after the US Consumer Sentiment missed estimates in September. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade negatively as the pair is still trading within the descending channel. At the same time, technicals are pointing lower since the pair failed to climb above the 20 and the 50 SMAs. The RSI on the four-hour chart is above 30, and is thus outside oversold territory, whilst the MACD is negative, lending supports to bears. That being indicated, EUR/USD is still on the downside. Nonetheless, the downside might face some obstacles as the pair has reached the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, and is due for a pullback.
Resistance: 1.1806, 1.1894, 1.1965
XAUUSD (Daily Chart)
From the technical aspect, the price of gold is currently in a descending triangle on the daily chart, with the bottom support line at 1756.90 and the resistance at around $1800. As mentioned earlier, the price of gold formed support near $1753 after a sharp drop on Thursday, and the RSI indicator was in the oversold area. Therefore, the next trend of gold should be able to take a breather with its small rebound. On the other hand, on the 1-hour chart, based on Fibonacci indicators, the short-term resistance is at the level of $1,765.58, while the next resistance is at the level of 1,778.62. All in all, the long term movement for the gold is on the downside.
Resistance: 1763.51, 1837.13, 1928.22
Support: 1689.89, 1598.80
US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose…
US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments
US stock declined on Thursday after swinging between gains and losses. Expiration of options and futures will be on Friday, which usually results in high volume and volatility. After seven months of gains, the equity market became choppier midway through September, but some market strategists believe that this is actually quite normal from a historical, seasonal standpoint.
The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones, both dropped on Thursday. S&P 500 was down 0.2% on a daily basis, as the index edged lower a day after it posted its biggest gain since August on Wednesday. The material and energy sectors were the worst performing among all groups, dropping 1.09% and 1.06%, respectively. The NASDAQ, on the contrary, finished in positive territory for a second day.
On top of that, US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments. The data unexpectedly increased in August, easing some concerns about a sharp slowdown in economic growth. The news has bolstered investor expectations for next week’s policy meeting, as well as expectations that US central bank will start to taper stimulus sooner. However, the weekly jobless claims increased to 332K, higher than what the market had expected. Therefore, the market fluctuated as investors digested the impact of mixed economic data. Market focus has now shifted to next week’s FOMC meeting.
In Asia, the stock market was surrounded by selling pressure as the debt crisis in China Evergrande Group keeps fermenting. Furthermore, casino stocks in Macau extended their losses amid the government’s tightening regulations on casino firms.
Main Pairs Movement
The U.S. core retail sales figures for August was due earlier today, and the news quickly sent shockwaves across foreign exchange markets. August retail sales increase by 1.8%, month over month, excluding car sales. The robust August spending figures went against fears of the Delta variant hampering economic recovery, providing a much-needed boost of confidence in the U.S. economy. Majority consumer spending in August has shifted from the service industry to furniture, groceries, hardware, and online purchases.
Most currencies dropped against the dollar as demand for the Greenback soared. Cable trended lower and dropped through our previously estimated support level of 1.3801. USD/CAD gained as demand for the dollar soared, but the pair is still consolidating between 1.2589 and 1.268 with no clear down or up trend. AUD/USD, also, fell through our previously estimated support level of 0.731 as the dollar gained strength.
GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)
Cable traded higher during the European trading session as the U.K. cabinet reshuffle passed smoothly. However, as the robust U.S. retail figures and American trading hours arrived, the dollar gained strength and started to drag Cable down. Cable tumbled as much as 0.53% at the beginning of the American trading session. The strong dollar brought Cable beneath our previously estimated support level of 1.3801 and the pair is trading at 1.378 as of writing. Speculators will be eyeing next week’s FOMC meeting as FED bond tapering is seemingly imminent.
From a technical point, GBP/USD reversed yesterday’s upward trend amid a resurgence of dollar demand due to healthy August retail sales figures. Cable has broken through our previously estimated support level and is continuing to trend downwards as of writing. Nearest support for the pair sit at 1.3755. However, the U.K retail sales figures for the month of August are due tomorrow and could provide some upward momentum for bulls and the pound if figures return better than estimated results. RSI is currently sitting at 37.74, suggesting some under buying in the market. Cable has broken ground below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA; furthermore, the pair is edging close to the lower bound of the bollinger bands.
Resistance: 1.3905, 1.3937, 1.3958
Support: 1.3755, 1.368, 1.3604
USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)
USD/CAD trended downwards at the beginning of the trading day, but quickly recovered from the session low of around 1.26, and gained more than 0.5% once the American trading session began. Strong dollar demand has brought the pair to challenge our estimated resistance level of 1.2708, helping the pair regain all of the lost ground since Monday. Speculators, however, should still be mindful that the Loonie is highly dependent on global export and commodity prices, thus indications of international economic slowdown could drag the Loonie lower still and propel USD/CAD to higher levels. The Canadian federal election will take place next Monday, and polls are showing a slight favor to Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party.
From a technical point, USD/CAD is still contained by our previous resistance estimates, but the pair is edging closer to the 1.27 price level. RSI is currently sitting at a marginally over-baught level of 55. USD/CAD has reached the upper bounds of the bollinger bands after today’s dollar rally, and the pair is currently trading above the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
Resistance: 1.2708, 1.2834, 1.2912
Support: 1.2589, 1.252, 1.2494
AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)
The Australian Bereau of Statistics revealed that the unemployment rate fell to 4% in August, compared to 4.6% in July. However, the decline in the unemployment rate is attributed to the lowered participation rate in August. Despite a better unemployment rate in August, the lowered participation rate raised concerns and bearish sentiment for the Aussie dollar. AUD/USD began the day trending lower, and, once the U.S. retail sales figures were released, the pair trended even lower and broke through our previously estimated support level of 0.731. However, as of writing, AUD/USD has successfully defended the 0.7285 support level and the pair is beginning to stabalise around that price level.
From a technical point, RSI indicates 55.38, suggesting neutral buying sentiment. AUD/USD successfully defended our previously estimated support level of 0.7285, but the pair dropped through the 0.731 support level. Currently, the pair trades at the lower bound of the Bolliner bands, and the pair is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.
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