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22 May 2025,06:27
Daily Market Analysis
22 May 2025, 06:27
Key Takeaways:
*Bitcoin hits record $109,693 amid renewed fiscal concerns and institutional buying momentum.
*U.S. debt worries deepen as $3.8T spending plan and Moody’s downgrade spark safe-haven demand for BTC.
*ETF inflows and corporate accumulation drive the rally, but low retail interest and tech correlation pose risks.
Bitcoin surged to a record $109,693 this week, extending a 43% rebound from April lows, as growing U.S. fiscal stress and institutional accumulation drive renewed momentum. A $3.8 trillion spending plan and Moody’s U.S. downgrade have intensified concerns over debt sustainability, reinforcing BTC’s appeal as both macro hedge and risk asset.
The rally comes at a time when fiscal stress in the U.S. is once again in sharp focus. A $3.8 trillion spending package backed by the White House has stoked renewed fears of deficit expansion, especially following Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and a projected rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio to as high as 7%. With investors increasingly questioning the long-term sustainability of government debt and the dollar’s role as a reserve asset, Bitcoin is being repriced—not as a fringe speculative vehicle, but as a structural alternative to fiat.
Institutions are leading the charge, with over $5 billion flowing into spot ETFs since April and public company holdings up 31% year-to-date to $349 billion. MicroStrategy, KULR, and others are using Bitcoin in treasury strategies, while regulatory progress—like the GENIUS Act and Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion—bolsters mainstream acceptance.
Yet risks remain. Bitcoin’s strong correlation with tech stocks (+30% Nasdaq since April) leaves it exposed to equity pullbacks, particularly if Federal Reserve rate cuts are delayed or U.S.-China trade tensions intensify. Retail participation remains tepid, accounting for just 3.2% of recent demand, suggesting that the current rally is being led by institutions and long-term holders.
BTC/USD, H4
Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory after decisively clearing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $109,845, reinforcing a bullish continuation pattern. The breakout follows a strong 43% rally from April lows, with price action now eyeing the next major resistance at $118,810.
Momentum indicators confirm the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits deep in overbought territory at 73, reflecting robust buying pressure, while the MACD continues to widen above the signal line with a rising histogram, signaling accelerating upside momentum.
If this momentum holds, BTC/USD could make a run toward the $118,800 zone in the near term. However, failure to sustain above $109,800 could trigger a near-term pullback toward the $103,545 support area. Traders will be watching closely for volume confirmation and macro developments to assess whether this breakout can evolve into a broader acceleration phase.
Resistance Levels: 109,845, 118,810
Support Levels: 103,545, 97,250
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